Thursday, April 30, 2026

A single day

https://youtu.be/FcUhJAEUqTw?list=PLlCrV9TCfzMZ2xwpTDu30mKrZiRxA_hJ7&t=1574

Gold is the scarce resource in Age of Empires II. Just like oil is the scarce resource in the real world. A stupid player will use up all their gold, trading their military units that cost a lot of gold for enemy units that don't cost gold, and won't have gold when they need it.

One villager dying in the early game, or one villager not being created due to an idle town center, can have a huge effect later on. If a player was completely idle with no working villagers or TC for the first 20 seconds of the game (or if they took 20 seconds longer to place a TC on a Nomad start), then it's exactly like they're 20 seconds behind for the whole game. If the end game state is to have 180 population, with 20 units being trained in 20 seconds, then the 20 seconds idle at the start of the game means 20 fewer units at the end game. If the player who was idle at the start has 40 military units, the player who was not idle will have 60 military units, and can expect to win a battle with (60^2-40^2)^0.5 = 45 units remaining.

Suppose someone shares this idea, and people use it. On the day before they share it, and also on the day they share it, 500 people die in group conflicts around the world. The day after they share it, 490 people die in conflicts. Five years after they share it, 20 people die in conflicts in one day. Does sharing it one day earlier save the lives of 10 people?

No, it saves the lives of 480 people. Stupid people might not realize this, but it's the correct answer, and enough people can see the correct answer that they would inform the stupid people and it becomes the group's evaluation of someone's actions. Anyone who cannot see that 480 people would be saved by sharing it one day earlier is stupid.

Same with other things, like suicides. If 2000 people commit suicide each day, and the suicide rate is halved from problems like unemployment being fixed, then sharing this idea one day earlier means 1000 fewer people die from suicide.

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