Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Post that makes me look dumb

Was just having a dream in which there was a female who was probably Turkish. I infer that I knew this in the dream because I asked her if she knew who fancyfenty was. In real life this is a nickname for Rihanna, but in the dream, the person's response was like "that tells me everything I need to know" implying that she was the previous owner of the @fancyfenty Chirp Club account. Anyway, a bit later on in the dream I remembered when in 2013, this person said something to Sherine that mentioned that Sherine was Lebanese, and I think Sherine's response was like, "thanks for remembering what country I'm from."

If those were the words that Sherine used, then I was wrong in thinking that there was ambiguity in "what country Sherine is from". I had been thinking that when I said in 2013 that "if Sherine doesn't share the idea, it means she doesn't care about Lebanon", that it was possible that it wasn't "the country Sherine was from", which I think Sherine had said was one of the only two things she cared about. Since I wasn't sure if it was possible to say that the country Sherine was from, was actually the US or Canada.

But if this response from Sherine to @fancyfenty did use these words, then I was wrong, and I should have known in 2013 that this interpretation was not possible.


Some videos featuring songs by Rihanna:

20141110 雪克杯杯 欣欣 蚊子 笨笨 南港7-11[Shake Baby - We Found Love, Only Girl In The World]

01227 ( 6 _ 7 ) 蔡欣伈, 跩蚊, 派派笨笨 (小媗), 雪克杯杯開場秀 2014.11.10@南港區研究院路 7-11[Shake Baby - We Found Love]

01228 ( 7 _ 7 ) 蔡欣伈, 跩蚊, 派派笨笨 (小媗), 雪克杯杯開場秀 2014.11.10@南港區研究院路 7-11[Shake Baby - Only Girl in the World]

5374 ( 1 _ 7 ) 蔡欣伈, 跩蚊, 派派笨笨 (小媗), 雪克杯杯開場秀 2014.11.10@南港區研究院路 7-11[Shake Baby - We Found Love]

5375 ( 4 _ 7 ) 蔡欣伈, 跩蚊, 派派笨笨 (小媗), 雪克杯杯開場秀 2014.11.10@南港區研究院路 7-11[Shake Baby - Only Girl in the World]

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

No hidden message in the title

I don't know if the following statement is true, but I will assume that it's true until the evidence does not appear to support it:

If no famous person publicly shares the idea, it's because Sherine doesn't want or care if anyone shares it, even though Sherine's family is from Lebanon and Greta recently posted on Instagram about the damage to Lebanese agriculture.


I'm waiting for Greta to make the poll from the post, "I got distracted by lions".

Perceptions

Trump linked a news article: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116403452696175100

This was a trending story on the same site: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2026/04/hormuz-blockade-europe-mobilizing-against-u-s-not/

Neither the U.S. nor Israel is dependent on oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Around the globe, the U.S. is the primary enforcer of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), maintaining freedom of navigation for all countries. Trump’s request for Europe and other allies to support U.S. freedom-of-navigation patrols in the Strait of Hormuz was rejected.

Someone can actually write this. From Wikipedia:

As of October 2024, 169 sovereign states and the European Union are parties. The United States is among the states that have not ratified the treaty.

I was actually thinking several days ago, "Iran should conduct freedom of navigation patrols near the US." But I don't know if they have any large warships left. And if they did have one, the US would probably just sink it during the freedom of navigation patrol.

Bullet

 (cd '/media/misaki/Nao/storage/short/not sexy/'; find * -name "*journey*" -printf "%T@ a %8s  %Td %Tb %TY %TH:%TM  %p\n"|sort -n|cut -f 3- -d " " )

24534024  07 Aug 2025 16:32  武媚儿 @65464921155 via Vicky小辣椒, “沙漠之花”华莉丝•迪里的60年血泪逆袭!世界反割礼第一人。 #AI#华莉丝迪里 Life journey [douyin 7535029932062625059].mp4
18076650  07 Aug 2025 16:38  武媚儿 @65464921155 妈祖林默舍己救人的一生!#妈祖文化 #历史人物 #民间故事 #AI历史 #人物故事 Life journey [douyin 7519460644590193954].mp4
25148459  07 Aug 2025 16:39  武媚儿 @65464921155 抗倭名将,练兵有方,保家卫国,民族英雄垂青史,戚继光的一生#历史故事 #古人的智慧 #历史人物解说#人物故事 AI Life journey [douyin 7518415635631951144].mp4
21008008  07 Aug 2025 16:43  武媚儿 @65464921155 晚清脊梁 左宗棠的一生 #历史#AI#左宗棠#清朝 Life journey [douyin 7516380145176464680].mp4
20855797  07 Aug 2025 16:44  武媚儿 @65464921155 《从孤苦乞儿到冷血帝王,朱元璋的悲剧谁懂?》#历史人物解说#朱元璋#帝王 #明朝#草根 AI Life journey [douyin 7515797391547780386].mp4
24628018  07 Aug 2025 16:48  武媚儿 @65464921155 《秦良玉:从抗金到抗清,明朝最后的巾帼忠魂》#秦良玉 #历史 #明朝 #ai Life journey [douyin 7520445658902449460].mp4
17980766  07 Aug 2025 16:50  武媚儿 @65464921155 云南白药创始人 曲焕章传奇的一生#历史 #曲焕章#AI#云南白药#草药 Life journey [douyin 7523581314605272354].mp4
20928440  07 Aug 2025 17:16  武媚儿 @65464921155 晚清巨商胡雪岩,跌宕起伏的传奇人生#历史 #ai#胡雪岩 #清朝 Life journey [douyin 7522089443496316195].mp4
16737351  07 Aug 2025 17:17  武媚儿 @65464921155 18岁守寡被夺家产,只剩50两嫁妆的她,保住了吴家命脉!#周莹#清末#AI#人物故事#青年创作者成长计划 Life journey [douyin 7532478518232648994].mp4


A white, cat-shaped carrot: when the character Death in one of Terry Pratchett's Discworld novels looked at a cat in a smithy and saw the cat as it was at all points in its life simultaneously, including the future.

Remembering things that were never seen: a warlock floating in the air in the distance, lifting giant blocks and slabs of stone out of the ground to form a structure. From an Ethshar novel, by Lawrence Watt-Evans.

Edit: I still haven't read The Summer Palace (2008). The Ninth Talisman (2007) ended with the main characters in a desperate situation.

Sunday, April 12, 2026

I got distracted by lions

Poll, that I didn't even write down in a notes file but am just typing directly here:

"Should people be concerned or upset if a situation seems to harm stupid people, like if they can't get jobs?"

Yes

I'm not sure

No


This is, basically, an indirect test for awareness of the hidden problem.

I would say the answer is yes, and yet I may have acted like other people would not answer yes.

It is not really fair to just state that "stupid people create problems". If you believe in evolution, two million years ago we were all only as smart as other monkeys. Everyone was stupid, and we became better; societies became more successful than other societies, and stupid people also played a big role in that success.

But because of the hidden problem, people gain more awareness of the potential for stupid people to cause outcomes that other people may regard as very harmful, even if they may not be willing to admit it; and so people can come to view stupid people as their enemies, which is not at all helped by stupid people using bad words and acting like other people are their enemies. But it's hard to blame them, because if it's a war, who can ever say who started the war?

(When I talked about Jewish people a few posts back, it made me think afterwards about apples and my animal name given to me by my oldest sister, which I'm not sure if I've mentioned on this site. I still think that it's about awareness of the hidden problem; not that "knowledge" is "knowledge of the hidden problem", but that degraded and unreliable signal accuracy can only affect cultures that have come to believe in knowledge, as useful information that can be communicated to others. A war can only exist if people know it exists, and this is early evidence.)

Anyway: it's better to avoid fighting. People don't like to admit to being stupid, and it's often considered an insult, but people who are stupid would prefer if other people saw them in a friendly way, rather than as an enemy. A lot of people don't want help or even sympathy, because people can use helping someone at one moment in time as an excuse not to help them in the future, but giving someone a job where they provide the same value as other workers is not providing them with special privileges. (Noting that people with physical disabilities like blindness also often want to find paid work. In my second job, as a dishwasher, there was a cook who sometimes had seizures that interrupted his work; he did not want to lose the job, but he did.)


To be honest I may have forgotten why I made this post, and before I try to remember, Knowledge: role-playing games like Dungeons and Dragons often have two statistics related to thought. In D&D, they are Wisdom (sought by clerics, who gain their power from deities, and apparently also by psionicists) and Intelligence (sought by wizards, who gain their power from raw magical potential in the world). In World of Warcraft, they are Spirit and Intellect, which were apparently intended to have a similar RPG flavor, with the first sought by healers and the second sought by mages.

There was an explanation that I remember, of the difference: "Intelligence is knowing that it will rain. Wisdom is knowing you should get out of the rain." I don't know if that's a good or accurate explanation. I think that maybe wisdom could be better contrasted with knowledge, which is not the same as intelligence: the idea here being that signal accuracy becomes more important, and its effects including decreased fitness for intelligent individuals are more prominent, in larger communities, where everyone does not already know everyone else.

Wisdom is a word that is (at least in the culture that I know, having been born at a certain time, and not necessarily familiar with how the word was used 200 years ago) associated with old people. Old people being more wise does not necessarily mean they are more knowledgeable than someone who is 20~30 years old and like been picking herbs for 20 of those years. This is the knowledge distinction: knowledge is useful information that can be communicated, or maybe replicated. Wisdom, then, is maybe decisions that are reached, possibly from information that would not be seem 'useful' enough to be classified as knowledge: the memory that someone had a certain facial expression before or after certain events, from which could be inferred their emotional state and values, even if neither the exact expression nor the inferred information can be communicated to other people or written in a book as reliable information.

So in a sense, wisdom would have predated knowledge. A lion might be wise, or maybe people are just impressed by lions sleeping all day and conserving their movement. It would be much easier to conclude from a lion's behavior that he is wise, than that he has any knowledge beyond awareness of the things that an observer could also see (or hear, or smell).


Almost been an hour since I started writing this, so if I have forgotten its purpose, not entirely surprising. Now it has been an hour.

If you read this post, please tell me if this seems like a useful poll. Of course I don't expect anyone to respond, and if they did it would be a trap since they would be acknowledging awareness of this idea and creating a moral dilemma for themselves.

Encouraging people to work less in a way that benefits society

Some people might not understand the need for the last part of this phrase: "in a way that benefits society." There are ways of encouraging people to work less that do not benefit society, which is a detail which is sometimes lost in questions like "does it help poor people when rich people work less?"

First: can it be helpful to society at all if people work less? Biggest reason to think the answer is no is war. Iran was just fighting the US and Israel. The fighting stopped; a day ago, US President Trump posted a promotional picture for a fighting match between two people. Is this relevant? Question: does it matter if the world thinks Iran won the fighting against the US, which Iran's leadership council said is not over? (Israel also played a role of course, but the US spends much more on military than Israel, and it's likely that the US sank the majority of Iranian naval vessels etc. Basically all I know is that Trump mentioned an island, so I looked it up on Wikipedia, and Iran uses it to export oil, and the article mentioned strikes by the US on the island; not strikes by Israel. The US has aircraft carriers, Israel doesn't.)

If it does matter whether the world thinks the US lost the war, presumably by being overwhelmed by cheap drones, then the war is like the martial arts match, which is held to determine a winner, I think (I have no interest in watching people hit each other and so I can't say whether people care more about the action than the results).


So: other possibilities in which people work less, and why they would not benefit society. (These are basically ways that other people have thought of, without thinking of this idea.)

Possibility: there is no unemployment. Actually making a plausible scenario for this condition is hard. Suppose a rule, "rich people must spend as much money per year as they earn, or they will be executed." Not realistic because in reality, people like to save money during part of their lives, then spend it when they get older. People also like to give money to their children. So, are rich young heirs forced to work, so that there is no unemployment? In general, an economy is likely not to be perfectly balanced so that there is absolutely no change in any macroeconomic indicators, like percent of wealth held by the top 10%, from one year to the next. If wealth is increasing, then even if there is no unemployment at one point in time, it would arise in the future, if a scenario is simulated for thousands of years.

We just ignore that and say that there is no unemployment. If there IS unemployment, then if people work less, then it allows other people to work, which reduces unemployment, which drives up wages. This is basically the case no matter what the details are regarding people working less. So it becomes harder to show that people working less in this situation helps society. If any methods show benefit under this condition of no unemployment, they will show a larger benefit if there is unemployment.

Possibility: welfare. People quitting work and just collecting welfare, paid for by rich members of society. By many metrics, society would be improved by this: if you exclude the people who are deliberately not working and who are collecting welfare, then more people can find jobs, because someone has to create the value which is consumed by the people on welfare. But on a fairness metric, this is worse: it does not benefit society. Someone who doesn't care about fairness, or who believes in an ancestral debt that can only be paid off by welfare, might disagree and say that it does benefit society.

Possibility: people who value their time highly, and value more money lowly, make a sacrifice in working less time. Example: someone who works 60 hours per week and makes $2 million per year reduces their work load to just 40 hours per week and makes $1 million per year. They have to work 33% more to make $1. Maybe this increases the time they spend with their children from 1 hour per week to 10 hours per week, a 900% increase, and they feel it's worth it. But it doesn't benefit society for them to do this. Natural assumption is that if they are working 67% of the hours, they are still providing 67% of the value to their company. Informed conclusion is that they are still providing even more than 67% of the value, since people are less efficient when they work more, though the actual relationship between time worked and efficiency while working probably has a peak (like with the model of, 'efficiency is quadratic due to a split between information gathering and decision making, with the value of decisions being directly proportional to the information gathered').

So if they are providing 67% of value, while earning only 50%, then the company is earning more. Even if they're making $1 million per year, most stocks are held by rich people, and it's reasonable to say the higher profits for the company go to rich people. Result: higher inequality. If rich people have more, then poor people have less; if everyone has more money it's just called inflation. This first-order effect is bad for society, and the second-order effect of "creating a pattern for other people to follow" is also bad for society. If one worker is willing to sacrifice and work more for lower wages, then companies will expect other workers to do the same.

Possibility: no sacrifice, people just work less with a proportional reduction in wages. The $2 million per year worker goes to $1.33 million when they reduce their hours per week from 60 to 40. In reality, people tend to work based on how they are paid, with exceptions for stupid people who don't realize when they're being paid more than other people who are doing the same amount of work.

So if the worker is being paid 67% as much, then they will only try to do 67% of the original work. They might 'accidentally' do more, just as when they are only getting paid 50% as much (and still looking at being granted the option of doing this as a favor from the company), but they won't feel an obligation to do so.

As the middle option, that seems like it's being fair to all involved, it can be hard to see why this is bad for society. It's basically only bad because it's not stable. There is nothing that makes it particularly attractive, either for the company or the worker, and so not many people would do it. All it really does is exist as what seems like an acceptable solution, which prevents people from looking for a better solution. If unemployment exists, then people working less in this way does reduce unemployment, but people often talk about things like the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, which is basically an excuse to ignore all the young people who can't find jobs despite a low birth rate: an excuse because inflation can't happen, or eventually ends, without the first step of printing money. So if people don't see reducing unemployment beyond a certain point as important, then the benefits to society from people working less in this way cease.

Possibility: people work less but are paid the same amount. Workers say they want this but it provides no benefit to a business. Like with welfare, it's a solution that involves conflict: one side benefits, while another side receives net harm (as opposed to just a smaller benefit). Conflict rarely generates solutions better than the best possible solution that doesn't involve conflict.

Possibility: instead of getting people to work less, businesses find ways to get people to work more. This increases unemployment and also increases inequality, because people won't demand wage increases in proportion to the amount of work they do.


The final possibility is this idea. If we use the same terms as before, businesses are making a sacrifice: the $2 million per year worker goes from 60 to 40 hours per week, and is paid $1.5 million, rather than $1 million (worker sacrifices) or $1.33 million (proportional reduction). The potential for this to benefit society, ignoring the effects that the worse possibilities mentioned above can also provide (like lower unemployment), is rooted in people working harder because they are being paid at a higher rate; or alternatively, people working harder because if they complete tasks sooner, they have more free time. Businesses benefit if people work harder, and have the option of preventing people from working less in this way if the promised efficiency gains don't materialize (including by truthful indications to workers that the business will shut down due to unprofitability if workers don't provide enough value to the company). Businesses also have a safety mechanism if giving workers more freedom to decide when tasks are done leads to people doing a worse job on tasks by spending less time on them (i.e. dishonesty): people who finish tasks earlier so they can leave work will be paid less.

Game theory revealing preferences

'Sarina Paris 01. Look At Us (Lyrics) [jSJTzfLy60s]_cropped.webm' (different version)
133 BPM, interval 3.6090225564, beat 1.94

'Look At Us Now Baby-lyrics [4om_eQ42mT4].webm'
138.067 or 138.03 BPM, beat 1.6

'Look At Us Now - Sarina Paris [z3.fm 36664329].opus'
138 BPM, beat 1.51
Audacity shows 0.0997 difference at start, reduced to 0.0476 around 9.45, with no change to end. 0.04 BPM difference over ~183 sec.


I named my newest SSD Orchid, after deleting the Ubuntu partition that I installed but never used. So I will use Orchid as the example name here, instead of "Person 1" or looking up a name from Wikipedia's lists of popular baby names, like I did with the first public argument. (Using this SSD for data means that I have no backup plan if my 17-year-old hard drive fails.)

Making up numbers instead of using a bunch of confusing variables, Orchid can take action to accomplish goal X. The difficulty of her accomplishing it is 10. The benefit to her of goal X being accomplished is not known to us, but we are trying to estimate it.

If Orchid was the only person (?) who could accomplish goal X, and she knew how difficult it was, then our task would be easy: if she tries to do it, then her benefit is 10 or more. If she doesn't try, then her benefit is less than 10.

What if other people can also do X? Let's say that X is repairing a damaged railing (??). Orchid's net benefit is her effort subtracted from her valuation of X. If her valuation is 12, and difficulty is 10, then she gains 2 if she does it herself, but 12 if someone else does it.

Suppose that I cannot do X myself. I can only pester other people until they do it. Different people have different difficulties. Suppose one person's difficulty is 50. Trying to exactly calculate things gets complicated here, but clearly some people would not want to do X without being pestered by me.

Another person's difficulty is just 10, same as for Orchid. We will call this person Jieli. Some possibilities:

1) Orchid has a 100% chance to value X.

2) There is only a 50% chance that Orchid values X.

If Orchid values X, we are assigning the arbitrary valuation of 12. If possibility 1 is true, then the expected gain for Orchid from goal X being completed is 12, while the cost to Jieli is 10. Net benefit for the whole system is +2.

If possibility 2 is true, then the expected gain for Orchid is only 6: 50% chance of 12, and 50% chance of 0. The cost to Jieli remains 10, so the expected net benefit for the whole system is -4 (a loss).

We don't know which possibility is true. But if possibility 2 is true, then I should not pester Jieli to do X, because it would be a net loss.

Some people who don't care about Jieli's wasted effort might still pester her, if they only care about gains for Orchid. Other people would not.

Orchid has the ability to reveal whether possibility 1 or possibility 2 is true. Orchid can also complete goal X herself, with difficulty 10. If Orchid does neither of these things, then it becomes more reasonable to assume that possibility 2 is true. In this way, uncertainty sort of resolves itself through people's inactions to reveal their preferences. But it only makes sense if Orchid understands that I value Jieli's effort. If people do not share the same goals of attaining the maximum benefit for the overall system, as an optimization problem, then there could be miscommunications about why action is not being taken.

Real world example: how often to take out the trash? https://youtu.be/3nllrCss2CU?t=43

If it would be easy for someone to get other people to use the idea and they don't do it, then I assume they don't want me to pester other people who would have much more difficulty convincing people to use it.